A quiet place to think it through

Should you go to college, or learn a trade?

This won't tell you which path is right — that turns on far more than money. It does one honest thing: it counts the cost almost no one counts. Four years of tuition isn't the real price of a degree. The real price is the four years of wages you don't earn while someone who went into a trade already is — and whether the degree's higher pay ever earns that head start back depends almost entirely on the field you'd study.

Part 1

The two paths, side by side

One path spends four years in school, then earns more. The other starts earning sooner, with little or no debt. Everything below defaults to honest, sourced figures — national medians, 2024–26 — so change any number to your own and the answer moves with it.

Wage the trade pays, to start $62,000

What a skilled trade pays once trained — electrician, plumber, HVAC sit near here (BLS, 2024). Edit for your trade and region.

$30k$120k

Years to look ahead 30 years

From the start of the decision to roughly retirement age.

1040

Part 2

What your field would pay — the honest stress test

This is the number the whole answer turns on, and the one you can't know for sure yet. So give it twice: what you'd realistically expect, and an optimistic case if your field pays well. If the answer holds across both, it's solid. If it only works at the optimistic wage, the field is doing the deciding — and that's worth knowing.

Post-college wage — what you realistically expect $79,700

The all-fields median for a bachelor's degree is about $79,700 (BLS, 2024). Many fields land below it; some well above. Use what's honest for yours.

$35k$160k

Post-college wage — optimistic case $93,600

If the field pays well — nursing, engineering, computer science run from the low $90,000s into the $130,000s (BLS, 2024).

$35k$200k

Part 3

The cost of the four years

These default to reality, not to whatever makes the degree look best. The biggest cost here is the one that isn't a bill: the wages forgone while studying.

Wage you'd earn instead of studying $49,200

The opportunity cost — what a high-school graduate earns instead of being in school (BLS, 2024). This is the hidden number; it dwarfs tuition.

$0$100k

Annual tuition + fees $11,950

In-state public four-year average (College Board, 2025–26). Private and out-of-state run far higher — edit it.

$0$60k

Annual living costs while studying $13,900

Room, board, and the rest (College Board, 2025–26). Living at home cuts this sharply.

$0$40k

Years to the degree 4 years

Each extra year adds tuition and another year of forgone wages — both.

Student debt at graduation $29,560

Average among borrowers (College Board). Set to $0 if paying without loans — the rate below dims when you do.

$0$150k

Loan interest rate 6.4%

Federal undergraduate rate, 2025–26 (U.S. Dept. of Education).

0%12%

The quieter assumptions

Wage growth, both paths 3.4%

The same rate for both, because no one can credibly know the difference. 3.4% is the recent economy-wide figure (BLS Employment Cost Index, year ending March 2026).

0%6%

Loan repayment term 10 years

Standard federal repayment is 10 years.

130

Trade training / certification cost $5,000

Total out-of-pocket for the program. Many apprenticeships pay you while you train — set this low or to $0.

$0$60k

Years of trade training 1 year

Time before earning the trade wage. Apprenticeships run longer but often pay during them.

Wage forgone while training $49,200

Same baseline as the college side, usually over a shorter window. Set to $0 for a paid apprenticeship.

$0$100k

Degree overtakes the trade at a typical wage for your field

Degree overtakes the trade at an optimistic wage

The head start the trade banks peak lead, before the degree closes it

Why it landed here

Going deeper

How this is calculated, and what each result band means →

You have a number. Now the part the math can't decide →

This is a thinking tool, not financial advice. It compares two earning paths on national-average figures; your field, your school, your region, and your own life will move every number. For decisions this large, talk it through with people who know you — and with a counselor or financial professional who can see your specifics.